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The World Is on Track to Warm 3 Degrees Celsius This Century. Here’s What That Means.

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There’s a very real chance the planet will warm up an average of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) this century — and that would be disastrous.

In such a brutally hot world, scientists agree, deadly heat waves, massive wildfires, and damaging downpours will come far more often and hit much harder than they do today. The ocean will be hotter too and more acidic, causing fish declines and likely the end of coral reefs. In fact, a quarter or so of the Earth’s species may go extinct in such conditions or be headed that way. Our coastlines would be reshaped, a consequence of sea levels rising foot after foot, century after century, drowning places like Charleston, South Carolina’s Market Street, downtown Providence, Rhode Island, and the Space Center in Houston.

All of this, as climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California, Los Angeles, put it, would be bad: “Bad for humans. Bad for ecosystems. Bad for the stability of the Earth systems that we humans depend on for everything.”

Experts can’t say exactly how likely this future is because that depends on what humankind does to mitigate the worsening climate crisis, especially over the coming decade. But for world leaders gathering this weekend in Glasgow for the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), this future may well become an inevitability if they don’t agree to more aggressive and immediate measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

“Bad for humans. Bad for ecosystems. Bad for the stability of the Earth systems that we humans depend on for everything.”

The collective global goal under the Paris climate agreement is to prevent rising global temperatures from increasing no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), with no more than 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit) as ideal. But currently, we’re on track for almost double that — a potentially catastrophic 3 degrees.

“I fear that without science-based policy, and that most ambitious target being achieved, we will be facing a 3-degree-Celsius world by later this century,” Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech and one of the authors on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, told BuzzFeed News. “It’s almost unimaginable, frankly.”

So, what might 3 degrees Celsius of warming look like?

The starting point for measuring future warming isn’t today — it’s the late 1800s, when reliable global temperature records started becoming available. More than a century later, the planet has already warmed a little more than 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) due to the accumulation of fossil fuel pollutants such as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. That’s an average, but some places have already gotten much warmer.

Adding 2 more degrees to the more than 1 degree we’ve already added would make our world much hotter and disproportionately hotter on land. Here’s why: About 70% of the planet is covered in water, and water warms more slowly than land.

“If the whole world is warmed by 3 degrees Celsius,” Swain explained, “all of the land area has to warm by a lot more than that.”

“It’s almost unimaginable, frankly.”

That would likely be about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer on average over land, or collectively 4.5 degrees, according to Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst at the Breakthrough Institute. And it will likely be even hotter in the Arctic, which is already warming roughly three times the rate of the rest of the planet.

One way to envision what this might look like in the places in which we live is to consider the projected number of days where the local temperature hits or exceeds 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Earlier this century, Arizona experienced roughly 116 days of such high temperatures, Texas experienced about 43 days, Georgia about 11 days, Montana approximately 6 days, and Massachusetts just 1 day, according to modeling by the Climate Impact Lab.

Were global temperatures to rise by an average of 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, those numbers would spike to an estimated range of 179 to 229 days of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit days in Arizona, 135 to 186 days in Texas, 85 to 143 days in Georgia, 46 to 78 days in Montana, and 26 to 66 days in Massachusetts, per the same analysis.

Just this summer, the Northwest Pacific heat wave brought Death Valley-like temperatures to British Columbia, Oregon, and Washington, killing hundreds of people in an event that scientists agree would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. Then a record-setting downpour dropped about 9 inches in the middle of Tennessee, killing about two dozen people. And last weekend, more than 5 inches dropped in a day in California’s capital city of Sacramento, setting a new record.

“What I think about is, what would the shocking event be in a 3-degree-warmer world?” Swain said.

It’s impossible to know the answer exactly. But the general contours of what it could look like are already clear: even more common and intense extreme heat events and similarly more frequent and intense downpours, even in places that are expected to get drier in such a world. This is true for almost anywhere on the planet.

“There are very few places on Earth that are not going to see an increase in the maximum precipitation intensity,” Swain said, adding that there are “very likely zero places that are not going to experience an increase in the most extreme hot days.”

Pete Bannan / MediaNews Group via Getty Images

Warren Montgomery attempts to make his way across a road in Chadds Ford, Pennsylvania, following historic flooding from the storm system that was Hurricane Ida.

Statistics from the latest IPCC report support this. What was considered a 1-in-10-year extreme heat event, such as a heat wave, in the late 1880s would be more than 5.6 times likely to occur in a 3-degrees-warmer world. The outcome could be higher power costs due to an explosion of air-conditioning, which could trigger power supply problems. Those without access to cooling could suffer more heat sickness. And then there’s the issue of water shortages; together with ongoing heat waves, they could spur massive crop failures.

Likewise, what was previously considered a 1-in-10-year extreme precipitation event over land would be more than 1.7 times likely to occur. These types of disasters have historically caused washed-out roads, flooded homes and businesses, and knocked-out power lines.

Meanwhile, regional disasters will also increase in frequency and intensity. Think more prolonged droughts and bigger wildfires along the West Coast and more powerful hurricanes along the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Worse, a phenomenon called “compounding disasters” could mean such events hit in rapid succession or simultaneously. A recent example of this was Louisiana’s Lake Charles, which suffered through multiple federally declared disasters in a year: back-to-back hurricanes, including a devastating Category 4 storm, followed by a winter storm and then intense flooding.

In a 3-degrees-warmer world, the coastlines of today will largely be gone, endlessly reduced over the coming centuries by rising seas.

By the end of 2100, sea levels are expected to rise by about 2 feet on average. That would be near catastrophic for small island nations. Most of Maldives, large swaths of the Bermuda archipelago, and some of Seychelles island, including its airport, could be underwater. So, too, could large parts of Thailand’s capital of Bangkok, home to more than 5 million people; the Netherland’s Amsterdam, the Hague, and Rotterdam cities, which are, combined, home to about 2 million people; and much of the US Gulf Coast, including sections of big cities like New Orleans and Texas’s Galveston. These examples are based on mapping by the research group Climate Central, whose projections do not account for current or future defenses constructed to counter rising water levels.

“An estimated 12% of the current global population living on land could be threatened.”

Water will continue rising next century and the one after. So jumping to 2,000 years in the future, Robert Kopp, a climate scientist at Rutgers University, expects water levels to be somewhere between 13 feet to more than 30 feet above current levels. That much water, assuming there are no defenses in place against the rising levels, would likely inundate parts of California’s Bay Area and Los Angeles and reconfigure much of the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida coasts, according to Climate Central mapping.

“An estimated 12% of the current global population living on land could be threatened under long-term future sea level rise under the 3 degrees Celsius scenario,” said Scott Kulp, a principal computational scientist at Climate Central. “So that amounts to 810 million people.”

The projection to 2100 doesn’t account for the possibility of the world’s ice sheets rapidly melting, and even the longer-term estimates don’t assume a total rapid collapse, although it’s possible. “The more we push the system above 2 degrees Celsius — but we don’t know how much — the more the chance we trigger ice sheet processes that could rapidly increase sea level rise,” Kopp explained in an email.

Perhaps the most frightening thing about a 3-degrees-warmer world is an uncertainty about how it would impact the way our natural so-called carbon sinks — think plants and trees, soil, and even the ocean — regularly and consistently pull carbon dioxide out of the air. If any one of these sinks were to stop absorbing as much carbon, more carbon would linger in the atmosphere, fueling global warming.

“We certainly can’t rule out a 4-degree-warmer world.”

Or there’s a possibility that one of the more longer-term carbon sinks could simply vanish. Right now, for example, there’s a layer of frozen ground, called permafrost, spread across parts of the planet, including the poles. Collectively, all this permafrost stores more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere. As the planet warms, the permafrost layer will thaw, releasing some of that carbon into the atmosphere along the way and fueling more warming in a dangerous feedback loop.

“Half of our emissions right now are pulled back into the ground by natural carbon sinks that have been functioning decade in, decade out at the same service levels,” said Cobb of Georgia Tech. “So going forward, as a climate scientist, it is very concerning that we are beginning to understand that there’s a real risk that these natural carbon sinks could stop functioning as well at higher warming levels.”

As the Breakthrough Institute’s Hausfather put it: “The thing is, even if we think we’re on track for a 3-degree-warmer world under current policies, we certainly can’t rule out a 4-degree-warmer world.” ?

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Source Here: buzzfeednews.com

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5/13/22 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

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5/13/22 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 12 (PUTIN’S WAR)
2. Flag Officer Announcements (New JSOC Commander)
3. US intelligence community launches review following Ukraine and Afghanistan intel failings
4. U.S. Embraces Finland’s Move Toward NATO Membership. What About Ukraine?
5. Marine Raiders tackle ‘influencing’ to disrupt adversaries before the fight
6. Here’s what US Army leaders are learning from the Russia-Ukraine war
7. The Russians Lost An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
8. FDD | Biden Should Press WHO to Suspend Russia
9. F.B.I. Told Israel It Wanted Pegasus Hacking Tool for Investigations
10. Are the U.S. and Russia Destined for War over Ukraine?
11. Seven (Initial) Drone Warfare Lessons from Ukraine
12. No Marshall Plan for Ukraine
13. Lawmakers worry Army doesn’t have basing agreements for long-range fires
14. Why the West just can’t get enough of Zelensky
15. Challenge of maintaining US ‘arsenal of democracy’
16. Satellite images ‘suggest China is practising missile strikes on targets in Taiwan and Guam’
17. Afghanistan: Resistance Front claims killing of 22 Taliban members in Panjshir
18. The US may be using Ukraine as a blueprint for how Taiwan could stop a Chinese invasion
19. Will Ukraine Break The Back Of Beleaguered US Indo-Pacific Strategy? – Analysis
 

Korean News Content:

1. N. Korea reports 6 deaths after admitting COVID-19 outbreak
2. Analysis: COVID crisis could deepen N.Korea food shortages amid drought warnings
3. North Korea fires 3 ballistic missiles amid first virus outbreak
4. Yoon offers to send COVID-19 vaccines to N. Korea
5. N. Korea appears ready for nuclear test: presidential official
6. Top S. Korean, U.S. diplomats agree to continue consultations on N.K. humanitarian aid
7. U.S. supports efforts to contain COVID-19, vaccinate people in N. Korea: State Dept.
8. Explainer: How North Korea’s COVID-19 outbreak could ignite a major health crisis
9. Allies’ North Korea policy at crossroads amid COVID spread in Pyongyang
10. Biden considering Korea DMZ visit when traveling to Asia this month
11. Why Did N.Korea Finally Admit COVID Outbreak?
12. Reps. Steel, Kim Push Administration to Reaffirm Commitment to U.S./South Korean Alliance – OKN
13. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: A New Practice Creates a New Analytical Challenge
14. North Korea in a sudden shock Covid crisis

Dave Maxwell
Fri, 05/13/2022 – 9:22am
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Source: smallwarsjournal.com

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This Unsettling Army Recruitment Video Is a Master Class in Psychological Warfare

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This unsettling Army recruitment video is a master class in psychological warfare

The must watch video is at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA4e0NqyYMw This is so important I am not waiting until tomorrow to send this out.  I really want to highlight it.
 
Kudos to 4th PSYOP Group. Whenever anyone asks me what is PSYOP I will be showing this video from now on.  This is very well done though I know it will generate a lot of controversy.  This illustrates irregular war thinking* better than anything else I have seen in recent years. I will be linking this video in every future paper I write on irregular, unconventional, and political warfare.
“Irregular Warfare Thinking”*
Because IW is the dominant form of war in the emergent human domain.  
We need to infuse “irregular warfare thinking”* into DOD and “political warfare thinking” into the US government.
*What is “Irregular warfare thinking?”  It is thinking about the human element in the full spectrum of competition and conflict up to and including conventional and nuclear war. It includes but is not limited to all aspects of lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, political resistance, non-violent resistance, political violence, urban operations, stability operations, post-conflict operations, cyber operations, operations in the information environment  (e.g., strategic influence through information advantage, information and influence activities, public diplomacy, psychological operations, military information support operations, public affairs), working through, with and by indigenous forces and populations, irregular warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, alliances, diplomacy, and statecraft in all regions of the world.  
Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare.  Political warfare is the action of the whole of government in strategic competition.
V/R
Dave Maxwell
 
Read the entire Task and Purpose article below at the link HERE.

This unsettling Army recruitment video is a master class in psychological warfare

“Everything is a weapon. Even this video.”

taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky · May 13, 2022

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A new and somewhat unnerving recruiting pitch from the Army’s 4th Psychological Operations Group asks viewers one simple question: “Have you ever wondered who’s pulling the strings?”

The three-and-a-half minute, movie trailer-esque video was released by the 4th PSYOP Group on Youtube on May 2. Since then it’s brought in almost 250,000 views, and it’s not hard to see why: This is not your father’s recruiting commercial.

Read the remainder of this article HERE.

Dave Maxwell
Fri, 05/13/2022 – 1:42pm
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Original Source: smallwarsjournal.com

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5/14/22 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

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5/14/22 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 13 (PUTIN’S WAR)
2. RUSSIAN ANNEXATION OF OCCUPIED UKRAINE IS PUTIN’S UNACCEPTABLE “OFF-RAMP”
3. Is Putin Sick – Or Are We Meant to Think He Is?
4. Interview: Why The ‘Failure’ Of Russian Spies, Generals Is Leading To ‘Apocalyptic’ Thinking In The Kremlin
5. DARPA wants to model how ‘disinformation’ flows from fringe to mainstream platforms
6. Modern Resistance – Learning From Non-Western Examples
7. Escape From Moscow
8. With eye on China’s zero-Covid chaos, Taiwan seizes chance to open up
9. China builds simulated Taiwan port, ship to test missiles: military analyst
10. Strategies of Unusual Size
11. Can Russia and the West Survive a Nuclear Crisis in Ukraine?
12. Could a Korean-Style Armistice End the Russia-Ukraine War?
13. Chinese Views of the US and Russia After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
14. Why Ukraine Is the Best Place to be a Comedian
15. Europe’s new Iron Lady: Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas
16. The Covert Operation to Back Ukrainian Independence that Haunts the CIA

Korean News Content:

1. N. Korea leader says his country faces ‘great turmoil’ due to COVID-19 spread
2. Seoul could offer vaccine, medicine if Pyongyang requests
3. Rubio, Kaine Introduce Bill to Reauthorize North Korean Human Rights Act
4. How will South Korea-China relations unfold under Yoon administration?
5. Does US support Yoon’s hawkish stance on North Korea?
6. Korea, U.S. resume combined medical support exercise
7. Project Reveal: North Korean Digital Controls
8. Managing Instability in North Korea
9. North Korea: Kim Jong-un declares Covid outbreak a ‘great disaster’
10. EXPLAINER: What’s behind North Korea’s COVID-19 admission?
 

Dave Maxwell
Sat, 05/14/2022 – 10:30am
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Source: smallwarsjournal.com

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