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Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: December

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David AdesnikSenior Fellow and Director of Research

John HardieRussia Program Deputy Director

fdd.org ? ? December 1, 2022

Trend Overview

Edited by David Adesnik and John Hardie

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch.

In Iran, anti-regime protests continued into their third straight month despite the death of hundreds at the hands of security forces. The Biden administration has condemned this crackdown but refuses to endorse the protesters’ demand for an end to 40 years of clerical dictatorship. Nor will the White House rule out a resumption of talks with Tehran to revive some version of the 2015 nuclear deal.

The authoritarian regime in Beijing is also weathering a wave of protests sparked by its draconian efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The Biden administration offered tepid words of support for the protesters but appears to remain focused on reducing friction with Beijing. The Kremlin still controls the streets in Moscow but had another bad month in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces retook the strategic regional capital of Kherson with help from American and NATO weapons. Among the fraternity of anti-American autocrats, Kim Jong Un seemed most confident, testing a pair of intercontinental ballistic missiles, on one occasion with his nine-year-old daughter in tow.

Will December prove to be another rough month for America’s adversaries? Check back with us at the beginning of February, since the Tracker is taking off at the end of this month for the holidays. However, before we head out, we will be publishing a special year-end retrospective in mid-December that breaks down where the Biden administration has done well and where it has faltered in 2022.

Trending Positive

International Organizations

By Richard Goldberg

Trending Neutral

China

By Craig Singleton

Cyber

By RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and Jiwon Ma

Defense

By Bradley Bowman

Europe

By John Hardie

Indo-Pacific

By Craig Singleton

Iran

By Richard Goldberg and Behnam Ben Taleblu

Korea

By David Maxwell

Latin America

By Carrie Filipetti and Emanuele Ottolenghi

Russia

By John Hardie

Syria

By David Adesnik

Trending Negative

Gulf

By Hussain Abdul-Hussain

Israel

By David May

Nonproliferation and Biodefense

By Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker

Sunni Jihadism

By Bill Roggio

Turkey

By Sinan Ciddi

Trending Very Negative

Lebanon

By Tony Badran

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The Global Fragility Act and the Irregular Warfare Center: a Path for Diplomacy, Defense, and Development

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January 27, 2023

The Global Fragility Act and the Irregular Warfare Center: A Path for Diplomacy, Defense, and Development

Kevin D. Stringer, PH.D. – Colonel, U.S. Army, RetiredMadison Urban – IWC Analyst

Introduction

Wicked problems litter the security environment. They are opaque challenges, caused by multiple factors, and constantly evolving. These problems can be conceptualized through a myriad of lenses, each of which produces different possible solutions, and any intervention to address the range of solutions becomes part of the ecosystem itself and any negative impact cannot be undone, only mitigated. Such problems can take years to understand and take decades of effort to bring about progress. In an effort to undermine the United States and the current international order, strategic competitors are leveraging statecraft and irregular conflict methods to capitalize on the wicked problems of state fragility and increase their influence, resource access, and bargaining power.

Seeing the enormity of the diverse challenges posed by state fragility and the structural barriers that exist within the U.S. government that can inhibit progress, Congress passed the Global Fragility Act (GFA). The stated strategic priorities of the GFA and the intent to increase coordination with interagency, international, and non-governmental partners intersect directly with the Irregular Warfare Center’s (IWC) mandate to build the Department of Defense’s (DoD) capacity to counter irregular threats in collaboration with key allies and partners. With the recent announcement of Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and Coastal West Africa (Benin, C?te d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Togo) as the pilot countries/region, the opportunity to begin developing creative solutions to wicked problems has arrived.

Continued at the IWC website.

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1/29/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

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Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 28, 20232. Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine3. U.S. general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to get ready4. A Chinese naval blockade could isolate Taiwan and shock the world5. Putin Has a Problem: His So-Called Allies Won’t Help Fight in Ukraine6. Women Lead: Ukrainian Women’s Fight for the Future of Ukraine7. Ukraine says Russia’s putting inflatable tanks on the battlefield — but the decoys deflated8. World War III and IV? Why a U.S.-China War Might Have a Sequel9. Burning of Qur’an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties10. Some Western Backers of Ukraine Worry That Time Might Be on Russia’s Side11. What If The US Army Never Built The M1 Abrams Tank Or M2 Bradley?12. Russian TV discusses if economy now “equal” to Iran, North Korea or Cuba13. Germany was a soft target for Russian spies. That’s changing fast.14. Overmatch secrecy needed as China, Russia surveil US Navy, experts say15. The World Is Tired Of United States’ Wars – OpEd16. Women at war: Ukraine’s female soldiers dream of freedom, fight for survival17. West to deliver 321 tanks to Ukraine, says diplomat, as North Korea accuses US of ‘crossing the red line’18. China’s Top Nuclear-Weapons Lab Used American Computer Chips Decades After Ban

Korean News Content:

1. US intel: Deterrence against North Korea is working2. North Korea denies arms dealing with Russia3. Recently obtained “confidential document” signed off by Kim Jong-un reports on a gruesome incident involving a shock brigade4. North Koreans forced to clear snow from roads to capital on Lunar New Year5. ‘Beyond Utopia’ Review: A Badass Pastor Smuggles North Koreans to Freedom in Secret Sundance Doc6. Japan eyes easing S.Korea export controls as Seoul seeks to improve ties -media7. Opinion | Women in South Korea Are on Strike Against Being ‘Baby-Making Machines’8. S. Korea mistakenly fires machine gun near border with N. Korea9. NATO chief calls for stronger security ties with S. Korea to address China, other global challenges10. NATO chief stresses ‘interconnected’ security amid N. Korean support of Russian war efforts11. Trilateral maritime exercise (UK, ROK, US)12. FM Park, NATO chief discuss North Korea, expanding ties13. What’s behind N.Korean criticism of US’ Ukraine support?14. NATO to address North Korea-Russia arms trade15. North denies sending arms to Russia, slams U.S. for ‘groundless rumors’

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12/16/22 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

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Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Ukraine: WAR BULLETIN December 16, 5.00 pm EST The two-hundred-ninety-sixths day of the resistance of the Ukrainian people to russian military large-scale invasion.

2. America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Runs Through Ukraine

3. ‘Wiped out’: War in Ukraine has decimated a once feared Russian brigade

4. DOD’s Irregular Warfare Center: Building Partnerships by Opening Up the Tent

5. Wargame Maritime COIN

6. Asian States Are Worried the U.S. Is a Perennially Distracted Superpower

7. Women in Special Operations: Improvements to Policy, Data, and Assessments Needed to Better Understand and Address Career Barriers

8. Germany Shirks Its Defense Pledge, Imperiling the Asia ‘Pivot’

9. . Who cares who wins – The mythology of the SAS

10. Ukraine air defenses counter Russian barrage but missiles hit energy targets

11. An Army at Sea: Why the New FM 3-0’s Emphasis on Maritime Operations is So Important

12. Patriot missile system not a panacea for Ukraine, experts warn

13. Biden official told members of Congress that Ukraine has ability to retake Crimea

14. Ukraine war: Kyiv says Russia planning major ground offensive in new year

15. Putin adopting style of warfare abandoned by modern armies, says UK

Korean News Content:

1. Up Front: The Role of Civil Society in North Korean Human Rights

2. US policy toward North Korea has not failed

3. N. Korea says it tested high-thrust solid-fuel engine to develop new strategic weapon

4. N. Korea seems to be prepping military parade in Pyongyang: Seoul official

5. N. Korea likely to focus on building ‘three axes’ of its weapons system next year: expert

6. N. Korea continues to develop military capabilities that pose threat to U.S. and allies: Kirby

7. Korea Expected to Beat Japan in Per-Capita GDP

8. North Koreans struggle to prepare for the frigid winter weather

9. US, Seoul aligned on need to change China’s behavior: US official

10. UN General Assembly passes N. Korean human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year

11. Democracy in retreat and Korea’s timely co-hosting of 2023 Democracy Summit

12. North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine to Enable Long-Range Missile Strikes

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